Election 2020: Labour, National slip, minor parties Greens, NZ First up – 1 News Colmar Brunton poll

The major parties have slipped in the latest poll with Labour unable to form a standalone government.

Labour is on 46 per cent, down 1 percentage point, while National is on 31 per cent, also down 1 percentage point, in the 1 News Colmar Brunton poll tonight.

Act is steady on 8 per cent, the Greens up two percentage points to 8 per cent, and NZ First up two points to 3 per cent.

The New Conservative Party is on 2 per cent, and TOP, Advance NZ and the Māori Party are all on 1 per cent.

The Labour Party would not be able to form a government on its own and would need the support of the Greens, on the latest numbers.

The numbers translate to 59 seats for Labour, 11 for the Greens, 40 for National and 10 for Act. NZ First would not return to Parliament without winning an electorate seat as they remain under the 5 per cent threshold.

The poll showed 14 per cent were still either undecided or wouldn’t say how they would vote.

In the preferred Prime Minister stakes, Labour leader Jacinda Ardern is on 55 per cent (up 5), National’s Judith Collins on 20 per cent (down 3), and Act’s David Seymour on 3 per cent (up 1).

Ardern told 1 News she was pleased with the steady support that Labour has had.

On individual performance, 74 per cent approved of Ardern’s performance as Prime Minister, while 45 per cent approved of Judith Collins’ performance as leader of the National Party.

Greens co-leader Marama Davidson said she was “encouraged” by the poll result.

NZ First leader Winston Peters has said there is a “surge” of support for his party.

It comes as 1.56 million early votes have already been cast by 2pm today, which is 46 per cent of all enrolled voters.

Labour leader Jacinda Ardern and National leader Judith Collins were both in Auckland today preparing for tonight’s debate.

The campaign has been dominated this week with talk of the Greens’ proposed wealth tax, which Ardern ruled out yesterday for as long as she is Prime Minister.

It is the same commitment she has undertaken on ruling out a capital gains tax (CGT) and keeping the age of superannuation eligibility at 65.

The polls have shown Labour with a huge lead over National since Covid-19 hit New Zealand, while National has been stagnant in the low 30s.

In July, with the country at level 1 and before the second outbreak of Covid-19, the 1 News Colmar Brunton poll had Labour on 53 per cent and National on 32 per cent, while the Green Party and Act were on 5 per cent and NZ First was on 2 per cent.

Labour dropped to 48 per cent in the 1 News Colmar Brunton poll on September 22, while National was on 31 per cent, Act on 7 per cent, the Greens on 6 per cent and NZ First on 2 per cent.

Six days later, with National on 33 per cent and Act on 8 per cent, the National-Act bloc had gained 3 percentage points, while Labour, on 47 per cent, could no longer govern alone. The Greens were on 7 per cent and NZ First was on 1 per cent.

The most recent 1 News Colmar Brunton poll before tonight was a week ago, and had Labour steady on 47 per cent, while National had slipped one point to 32 per cent.

Act was also steady on 8 per cent, the Greens dropped to 6 per cent, and NZ First was on 2 per cent.

Ardern was well ahead in the preferred PM stakes on 50 per cent, more than double Judith Collins on 23 per cent – though the gap had narrowed by 7 percentage points since July, when Collins became National’s leader.

Earlier today, Collins said she didn’t believe the polls were accurate as there seemed to be so many undecided voters.

“The polls have been wrong in Australia, in the UK, in the US. They’ll be wrong here, too.”

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