Labour on track for huge majority at next general election

Rishi Sunak 'awful lot more popular' says Sir John Curtice

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Labour is on track to win a huge 314-seat majority at the next general election, according to a new poll. The survey, by Savanta and Electoral Calculus, gives Sir Keir Starmer’s party a 20-point lead with 48 percent, while the Tories are on 28 percent.

Under the model, Labour would more than double the number of MPs they currently have with a total of 482.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives – who won a thumping majority with Boris Johnson at the helm at the last general election in 2019 – would be down to just 69 MPs.

Under the model, Rishi Sunak’s party is projected to be wiped out across much of the north of England including the Prime Minister’s own Richmond (Yorks) seat.

It also suggests the Tories would also lose all of their constituencies in London, as well as many in the South West.

The SNP would nab an extra seven seats, according to the model, leaving them with all but four of Scotland’s 59 constituencies.

And the Lib Dems would boost their representation to the highest level since 2010 with 21 MPs, including swiping deputy PM Dominic Raab’s Esher and Walton seat.

Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, urged caution over the results and said the actual 2024 general election could “look very different”.

He said: “Last time we published an MRP model, I spoke of both the potential and precarious nature of the 56-seat majority and 12-point lead the poll gave the Labour Party during their conference.

“Even the most optimistic Labour supporter would not have foreseen what was to come, such was the subsequent Conservative collapse, and therefore this latest MRP model reflects the position now, of two parties experiencing widely differing electoral fortunes.

“But we must still express caution.

“Many seats going to Labour in this model, including a few that could be deemed ‘Red Wall’, still indicate a 40 percent or higher chance of remaining Conservative, and while that would have little impact on the overall election result, it does show that if Rishi Sunak can keep narrowing that Labour lead, point-by-point, the actual results come 2024 could look very different to this nowcast model.”

Some 6,237 British adults were interviewed from December 2 to 5.

It comes after polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice last month warned it would be “extremely difficult” for the Tories to win the next general election.

The pollster highlighted the cost of living crisis as well as Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng’s disastrous mini-budget.

He said: “History suggests that it’s going to be extremely difficult. No government that has presided over a financial crisis has ever survived at the ballot box. Voters don’t forget governments being forced to do a U-turn by financial markets.”

Sir John highlighted how there was an “incredible gap” between Mr Sunak’s personal ratings which are higher than the party’s.

He said: “His role as Chancellor as having saved the economy, or he saved the labour market is still with him. It does mean that personally he’s got a reputation.”

The polling expert added that any hope for the Conservatives at the next general election depends on if Mr Sunak can turn around the economy.

He said: “Maybe he can, but it won’t be easy. And the odds are against him. It’s pretty clear that, at the moment two years out, the Labour party are favourites to win the next election.”

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