Polling guru Curtice shares 2022 prediction as Sturgeon shows ‘first moves’ for IndyRef2

Sturgeon to begin 'first moves' for IndyRef2 says Curtice

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Professor of Politics at the University of Strathclyde, Professor John Curtice, shared his outlook for 2022 and what the biggest issues facing the UK Government will be for the next 12 months. Professor Curtice explained Boris Johnson would struggle to regain the trust among his MPs and that a “perfect storm” was on the horizon for a bad year for the Tories. The political expert also explained how Nicola Sturgeon would show her “first moves” with independence and Sir Keir Starmer will see his support wane as he fails to “generate enthusiasm”.

Speaking to George Galloway on Russia Today, Professor Curtice was asked what he believes the biggest political events of 2022 will be.

The academic said much of the electorate is very angry at the pictures of Conservative Christmas parties and the Owen Patterson scandal which has badly damaged public trust in the Prime Minister.

Professor Curtice believed Mr Johnson may also, unintentionally, gain support from “big state” Conservatives as the pandemic centralises power to Westminster and public spending is ramped up.

After discussing Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s leadership issues, Professor Curtice looked at Scotland and believed this year would see Ms Sturgeon ramp up her independence campaign after putting it to one side due to the pandemic.

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He explained: “North of the border, we have a government which is determined under Nicola Sturgeon with the support of the Greens to hold a referendum at some point.

“And she said she wants to do it by the end of next year.

“We have to remember it is a government that was elected virtually entirely by people who are in favour of independence and therefore almost entirely by people who are in favour of having a referendum.

“I think it’s probably going to be the case, assuming the pandemic has died down at all, that we will begin to see the first moves by Nicola Sturgeon.

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“She’s got civil servants working on developing the case for independence, I would anticipate we might begin to see some of that see the light of day in the next 12 months.

“We may begin to see the beginning of what could be quite a substantial constitutional row between the UK Government and Scottish Government.

“A row that might eventually end up before the UK Supreme Court.”


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Professor Curtice was then asked whether Sir Keir could make a strong challenge to Mr Johnson’s leadership but he was not convinced the Labour leader could.

He explained: “Last year was much more to do with how much Boris Johnson imploded rather than any marked enthusiasm for Sir Keir Starmer.

“He had some attributes, he is somebody people could imagine being prime minister but he doesn’t frighten people the way Jeremy Corbyn did…

“Equally, the converse of that is that he does not enthuse people either.”

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