UK election polls: Shock for Boris as Labour on course to lead polls by close of 2021

Labour 'way off' connecting with ordinary people says Harris-Quinney

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Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party enjoyed a whopping victory at the last general election, obliterating Labour’s chances and sweeping up some seats held by the opposition for decades. However, public mood appears to be shifting, and Sir Keir Starmer’s party could be on course to close the gap before the year is out.

Recent polling by Smarkets, the peer-to-peer betting site which gauges public mood, has odds of Labour leading the polls in 2021 at 53.19 percent.

Just 14.29 percent believe Labour has no hope of leading in the polls before 2023.

Smarkets Political Analyst, Patrick Flynn, said: “The world of politics can be extremely volatile.

“Less than three months ago, the Conservatives were extending their polling lead over Labour into double figures.”

He went on: “A survey published this week, though, finds the Prime Minister down 36 points with Tory members, and the Conservative poll lead over Labour has fallen to an average of around seven points, with Labour on course to lead an opinion poll by the end of the year.”

Elsewhere, polling is further indicating that Labour is closing the gap.

The latest Westminster voting intention poll from YouGov has the Tories on 39 percent, Labour on 34 percent.

When comparing that to the results of the 2019 general election – the Tories with 43 percent and Labour with 32 – it’s clear to see the easy Conservative lead is slipping.

Yet another disappointing poll for the current Government comes from YouGov again, for The Times, which shows Tory support in ‘Blue Wall’ heartland seats in the southeast and east of England collapsing.

That poll showed the Conservative rating was down eight points in these Blue Wall constituencies, while the party could lose up to 17 seats in the next general election.

The results showed that current voting intention in these constituencies currently stands at 44 percent for the Conservatives, 24 percent for Labour, 18 percent for the Liberal Democrats, nine percent for the Greens, and six percent for other parties.

This represents a change of -8 points for the Conservatives from their 2019 performance in these constituencies, +4 points for Labour, a surprising six-point drop for the Liberal Democrats, and a sizeable seven-point gain for the Greens.

The Conservatives are falling almost twice as fast in the Blue Wall as they are nationally, according to YouGov polling.

The YouGov poll results said: “While it would not be anywhere near enough to offset the [Labour] party’s losses in the so-called Red Wall in 2019, Labour punching holes in traditional Tory foundations will send alarm bells ringing across Conservative Associations and MPs in the South.”

The concerns cited by the Blue Wall voters included the Government as a whole, Brexit, Tory housing plans and HS2, among others.

Patric English, a research manager for YouGov, said: “The results of the blue wall poll highlight just how difficult a job Boris Johnson has in balancing his new voter coalition.

“The exact sorts of policies and priorities on issues such as Brexit and investment which are winning him support in the north and midlands are costing him and his party in the south and east.

“This divergence and the political realignment which follows has only been growing stronger in recent years, as the Conservative’s contrasting fortunes in the Hartlepool and Chesham and Amersham by-elections earlier this year show.”

Other blows to Tory support include scandals surrounding senior-level employees, such as former Health Secretary Matt Hancock’s affair and resignation.

Accusations levelled against the Prime Minister by former aide Dominic Cummings would have added to the general mistrust of his administration.

Add to these woes some of the highest numbers of coronavirus deaths, a PPE scandal and questionable lobbying, and it’s evident the Tories have some work to do to regain trust.

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