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Boris Johnson and his Conservative Party crushed the opposition in December’s general election to secure a huge 80-seat parliamentary majority, enabling him to force his Brexit deal through the House of Commons, something former Prime Minister Theresa May failed to do on three separate occasions. This saw Mr Johnson deliver on his general election pledge to “get Brexit done” on January 31, with negotiations on a trade deal with the European Union beginning in March. But these talks are already on the verge of collapse, with the two sides trading vicious blows and insults since the conclusion of the latest round of virtual talks last Friday (May 15).
The UK and EU are at odds over several aspects of the future relationship, and have blamed each other’s negotiating stance for the lack of progress being made thus far.
David Frost, the UK’s chief Brexit negotiator, has warned the EU and his Brussels counterpart Michel Barnier they will have to change their stance on a number of areas by the next round of virtual talks on June 1.
Even before formal trade negotiations began, Mr Johnson threatened to walk away from the negotiating table if sufficient progress had not been made by June.
John Macdonald, Head of Government Affairs at the Adam Institute think tank, warned this scenario is now becoming more of a reality, and had scathing criticism for the EU.
He told Express.co.uk: “While a trade deal is now even more in both the EU and UK’s interests, the EU appears not to understand (despite how often it has been repeated) that unlike Theresa May, Johnson’s strong Parliamentary majority is staked on his commitment to ‘Get Brexit Done’.
“It is likely he will not hesitate to walk away from the table.
“Johnson and his top team have already shown willingness to walk away should their negotiating principles be violated.
“They refused to cave to pressure to amend their Withdrawal Agreement Bill when the Tories had no working majority, choosing the riskier strategy of pursuing a General Election over sacrificing their principles.”
Professor Alex de Ruyter, Director of the Centre for Brexit Studies at Birmingham City University, warned the exploding tensions between the UK and EU will likely see trade deal negotiations collapse because “there is no change in sight to the UK Government’s negotiating approach”.
He told this website: “I think that ‘no deal’ is looking increasingly likely.
“For the free-market Brexit ‘ultras’ in the UK negotiating team, any form of continued regulatory alignment with the EU is anathema to them.
“I think they would prefer no deal to what they regard as continued adherence to Brussels rulings.
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“Given that we have until the end of next month to request an extension to the so-called Transition Period of continued Single Market and Customs Union membership, time is running out, and there is no change in sight to the UK Government’s negotiating approach.”
But while Kostas Maronitis, Lecturer in Politics and International Relations at Leeds Trinity University, conceded Mr Johnson could still turn his back on a trade deal with the EU, he outlined why the Prime Minister would be wrong to do so.
The political expert said: “Walking away would be wrong for two reasons.
“First, it would indicate a failure of statecraft and lack of political vision.
“Second, the world of trade is completely different to the one when the UK voted to leave the EU.
“The breakdown of relations between US and China and the recession caused by the pandemic do not necessarily provide any sense of safety or normality that the UK could rely on.”
Wyn Grant, Political Scientist and Professor of Politics at the University of Warwick, believes the UK is hoping its threats to pull out of trade talks could see Brussels relent in a number of areas, but he warned this strategy is fraught with danger.
He said: “I think that the UK does intend to walk away in the hope that the EU will offer a deal as the deadline approaches.
“They may do, but it would be a bare-bones deal that avoided the worst disruption.”
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