French election polls: What each candidate needs to win as Macron and Le Pen end campaigns

Macron hammer blow as Le Pen 'more in tune with daily issues'

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Emmanuel Macron is currently heading for his second term in office, a rarity for French Presidents, having captured the majority of votes in the first round on April 10. He finished in pole position with nearly 9.8 million (27.8 percent), 1.6 million and four points ahead of Marine Le Pen’s 8.1 million (23.1 percent) and well placed to win again on April 24. He and Ms Le Pen will need voters from other camps to coalesce around and push them across the finish line.

How much of the vote do French candidates need to win?

French elections come with one central rule; candidates need more than 50 percent to win.

Theoretically, that means they could win in the first round alone, but this is unheard of due to multiple choices.

In 2022, 13 candidates stood on the first Presidential ballot, meaning no one claimed more than 50 percent, so the top two candidates went through.

The second and final round makes a more than 50 percent majority a near certainty.

Draws in French elections are unprecedented, and candidates have never required a recount.

While there are no exit polls following elections, electors will release an early snapshot of votes that accurately predict the result.

France’s Constitutional Council declares the results and winner once counting has finished.

The new President will take office with their mandate 10 days later.

French election rules mean that each President can only renew their term once, meaning should Mr Macron win, this would be his last.

He is on course to receive a second mandate at present, but with close competition from Ms Le Pen.

The latest polls show that he will squeak through with most of the vote.

An IFOP poll has predicted that he could receive 55 percent of French votes tomorrow to Ms Le Pen’s 45 percent.

While it would elect him again, a result like this would underline his diminishing popularity.

When he earned his first term in 2017, Mr Macron surged to victory despite running as an outside candidate.

He managed to convince 66.1 percent of the French electorate to vote for him, leaving Ms Le Pen with 33.9 percent.

As a centrist, Mr Macron must court both sides of the increasingly divided French political spectrum.

Left and far-right wingers performed better this time around, as Jean-Luc Melenchon, the most promising left-wing contender, finished on 22 percent.

Without their candidate, the French left won’t necessarily turn to Mr Macron, as the country has a long history of low turnout in second rounds.

Ms Le Pen is more likely to sway the support base behind the similarly far-right Eric Zemmour, who won seven percent of the vote in the first round, closing the distance at the last minute.

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