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Democratic presumptive nominee Joe Biden is maintaining a steady lead over Donald Trump in the polls in a worrying turn for the President. A divisive figure regardless, Mr Trump’s credibility has taken a tumble in recent weeks with ongoing civil unrest across the states and the world’s highest coronavirus death toll.
Previously sizable margins in key states for the President have shrunk, meaning he could stand to lose some key states that would be vital to securing a second term.
What’s more, Joe Biden, the former Vice President, has a lead over the President in the polls which now supersedes other recent democratic nominees.
Mr Biden currently leads Trump nationally by nearly 10 points in the RealClearPolitics aggregate of polls, up from a four-point lead in early May, his largest lead since 2019.
Despite early concerns that Biden would be a weak standard-bearer for Democrats, he currently outpaces Hillary Clinton’s six-point lead at this point in 2016, and Barack Obama’s four-point lead in 2008 and one-point lead in 2012.
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Biden is also ahead in swing states that are critical for an electoral college victory, leading by eight points in Michigan, six points in Pennsylvania and Florida, five points in Wisconsin and four points in Arizona, all of which Mr Trump won in 2016.
Joe Biden and Donald Trump each need 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.
Most states are leaning or solidly in favour of one candidate, but in some states, the race is too close to call.
Trump holds narrow leads in states that he carried by sizable margins in 2016, leading Biden by just two points in Texas and Iowa, and one point in Ohio and North Carolina.
Bookies in the UK are throwing weight behind Mr Biden becoming the next President.
Betfair spokesperson Darren Hughes said: “Donald Trump has seen his odds go out to the biggest they’ve been this year for him to retain the Presidency, with the incumbent now 13/8 to win the election in November, with presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden odds-on favourite at 8/11 on Betfair Exchange.
“Trump had a disastrous weekend with a near-empty rally in Oklahoma, and Betfair Exchange punters traded over £1.1m between Friday and Sunday evening, on a market that is on track to smash all previous records for amounts traded, with £39m matched already, compared to £15m at the same point in 2016.
“The main beneficiary of this, of course, is Joe Biden, whose position at the top of the US Presidential Election market was cemented further, with punters driving his price down to an all-time low of just 8/11.
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“Biden is the shortest-odds challenger to an incumbent President in the history of US election betting, and will be hoping he can keep up this momentum over the coming weeks and months.”
The downturn in support is largely due to failure to adequately respond to recent civil unrest that erupted following the death of George Floyd.
While his job approval looked to be on track to be positive for the first time in his presidency at the start of the pandemic, it has since slipped to its lowest point since the Ukraine scandal, which led to his eventual impeachment.
Mr Trump frequently scores low marks for his handling of the coronavirus crisis but is positive by four points on his handling the economy despite recent economic downturn.
With the President now barely leading in several red states, and trailing in the critical swing states, his chances of securing a second term in November seem to be slipping away.
Mr Biden is battling the election ground on a message of building on Barack Obama’s legacy.
Joe Biden was Barack Obama’s Vice President for both of his terms.
Mr Biden, 77, has served in public life for around a half-century, has swathes of political experience and is seeking to cast himself as a steady, seasoned hand in a dangerous and uncertain world.
Mr Biden helped oversee the passage of the Affordable Care Act whilst working with Mr Obama, and health care remains a top priority for him.
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