US election 2020 odds: Will Donald Trump or Joe Biden win – swingometer predicts result

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Donald Trump was elected into the highest US office four years ago following two terms of former US president Barack Obama. Now he is battling against Mr Obama’s former vice president Joe Biden. Americans will cast their ballots on Tuesday, November 3 to elect their next leader. Mr Trump won the 2016 election despite losing the popular vote due to the voting system in the US. Many experts have made claims about the winner of the US 2020 election, but Express.co.uk has gathered exclusive data about what the books think will happen on election day.

The latest poll published on October 26 by Starboard Communications awarded Mr Trump the winner with 51 percent, compared to Mr Biden’s 44 percent.

However, the previous polls published by Ipsos in different states showed the Democratic candidate as the winner with 50 to 53 percent.

By comparison, Mr Trump won 44 and 45 percent in these polls meaning Mr Biden had a five to nine percentage point lead.

Mr Biden is ahead with a 52.3 percent average according to the national polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

Mr Trump is trailing 9.4 percentage points behind with a 42.8 percent average.

Bookmakers Betfair launched a swingometer tool last month as the race to election day drew closer.

At the time of the launch, a Betfair spokesman said: “Already there is huge interest in who will be the next US President on Betfair Exchange, with over £70 million wagered on the betting market.

“Joe Biden is the current favourite at evens, however almost 60 percent of the money has been bet on Donald Trump, who briefly went favourite yesterday for the first time in three months, and in the past 24 hours his odds have gone out to 21/20.”

He added: “Already this year we have seen some huge swings in the betting market, back in February, Joe Biden was 100/1 (just a 1 percent chance) to become the next US President, but as the months went on, the odds shifted in his favour, in August he had a 60 percent chance of winning, and since then his chances have decreased and it’s too tight to call.”

Now the bookmaker has unveiled new exclusive data to Express.co.uk to show how contentious and divisive the vote and forecasts really are.

With just one week to go, Mr Trump has a narrowed the gap between himself and Mr Biden’s odds.

The swingometer tool currently predicts Joe Biden’s odds at 66 percent compared to Mr Trump’s 34 percent.

Betfair spokesman Darren Hughes said: “The race for the White House has entered its last seven days, and Joe Biden has seen his odds improve to make him the strong 8/15 favourite (65 percent), with Donald Trump at odds of 15/8 (35 percent).

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“While Trump had narrowed the gap last week to odds of 6/4 (40 percent), sustained support for Biden has seen the gap widen once again, and it is Biden that remains the strong favourite to win the election.

“Since his odds were as high as 99/1 in March, when it looked unlikely he would even win the primaries, Biden has come in for steady support, and seen his odds shorten dramatically.

“Apart from a brief period in August, after both party conventions, Biden has remained the clear-cut favourite from the incumbent Trump.”

According to recent figures from the US Elections Project, more than 64 million early votes have been cast at the time of writing.

Early voting figures suggest that up to 50m Americans have already cast their ballots, and with the conventional wisdom seeming to suggest that a high turnout is in Biden’s favour, his odds have reflected these numbers, and he is the strong favourite with a week to go according to Betfair.

The current US President is continuing his busy campaign schedule this week as the election draws nearer.

Mr Trump will visit Wisconsin, Michigan and Nebraska on Tuesday before heading to Arizona and Nevada on Wednesday.

Betfair has odds on a GOP victory in each of these places as follows:

  • Wisconsin at 11/8, with the Dems on 2/5
  • Michigan at 5/2, with the Dems at 2/5
  • Nebraska at 1/33, with the Dems at 28/1
  • Arizona at 11/8, with the Dems at 4/6
  • Nevada at 9/4, with the Dems at 3/10.

The battleground swing states are a massive factor in the upcoming election.

Betfair’s Mr Hughes added: “From the odds on the Betfair Exchange, there are 11 clear swing states – determined by odds changes since the start of 2020.

“Swing states are states that have historically swung between voting Democrat and Republican, with no discernible pattern.

“Unlike states like Texas and New York, which are traditional Republican and Democrat states, swing states are often unpredictable, and therefore are often viewed as the most important states in an election.

“North Carolina is also being closely contested on the east coast.

“Traditionally Republican, Trump simply can’t afford to lose these 15 Electoral College votes, but Betfair Exchange punters are suggesting he may do just that- odds of 6/5 (45 percent) to the Democrats 5/6 (55 percent) suggest Trump is up against it here.”

Betfair has odds on a GOP victory in Pennsylvania at 7/4, with Dems at 4/7.

Other swing states include:

  • Ohio: GOP at 4/9, Dems at 9/4
  • Iowa: GOP at 4/6, Dems at 6/4
  • Minnesota: GOP at 11/4, Dems at 3/10
  • Florida: GOP at 10/11, Dems at 11/10
  • Georgia: GOP at 4/6, Dems at 11/8
  • North Carolina: GOP at 6/5, Dems at 4/5
  • Texas: GOP at 2/5, Dems at 5/2.

Mr Hughes said: “Perhaps the most important state of all is Pennsylvania- Trump simply cannot lose this state if he expects to keep the White House, and while it wouldn’t be such a hammer blow to Biden, the collateral effect of Trump winning the state on neighbouring Michigan and Ohio would heavily narrow Biden’s path to the White House.

“Odds of 4/7 (62 percent) suggest that Biden may be safe, but it’s worth bearing in mind that his odds were 4/9 (69 percent) in July, and Trump has been heavily targeting the Oil State.

“Biden’s debate comments about shutting down the oil industry, which provides tens of thousands of jobs in PA, will have done him no favours here, and Trump will look to capitalise in these final days.”

The Trump campaign has said the US leader will focus intently on the Rust Belt states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan during the final days of the campaign.

In each of these states, in-person voting on Election Day is expected to be especially heavy.

Mr Trump’s challenger Mr Biden is conducting the final days of campaigning at a more measured pace.

Over the weekend, the Democratic hopeful visited just two events in one swing state.

On Tuesday, Mr Biden will visit Georgia, which is a red state Mr Trump is at risk of losing.

Mr Trump won the state by 5.1 percent in 2016, a lower margin compared to Mitt Romney’s 7.82 percent in 2012 and John McCain’s 5.2 percent in 2008.

In 2016, the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton won 45.35 percent of the vote, which was slightly lower than Mr Obama’s 45.83 percent in 2012.

The odds have been subject to significant change since the summer.

A Betfair spokesman said: “In August, Dems went 8/11, but drifted right out to 5/4 in mid-September and went 4/5 overnight in early October.”

But overall, the odds still predict a win for Joe Biden, with the Democratic hopeful winning 305 Electoral College votes.

To win an absolute majority of Electoral Votes a candidate must win 270 or more of the 538 electors.

Betfair’s’ Darren Hughes said: “Based on the current state betting odds, we can estimate Joe Biden will be the new United States President next year, with Betfair Exchange projecting the former VP collects 305 Electoral College votes.

“Trump could find victories in Florida and North Carolina, two of his key targets for re-election, but even winning here wouldn’t be enough to close the gap – with Biden sweeping up the traditionally Democratic coastal states.”

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