{"id":26245,"date":"2023-10-02T21:43:41","date_gmt":"2023-10-02T21:43:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/harvestmoonnews.com\/?p=26245"},"modified":"2023-10-02T21:43:41","modified_gmt":"2023-10-02T21:43:41","slug":"super-el-nino-likely-this-winter-ncar-experimental-prediction-system-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/harvestmoonnews.com\/world-news\/super-el-nino-likely-this-winter-ncar-experimental-prediction-system-says\/","title":{"rendered":"“Super El Ni\u00f1o” likely this winter, NCAR experimental prediction system says"},"content":{"rendered":"

Current El Ni\u00f1o conditions that began a couple months early this year could develop into one of the strongest events on record this winter, according to an experimental research prediction system from the National Science Foundation\u2019s National Center for Atmospheric Research.<\/p>\n

If the forecast system is right, this El Ni\u00f1o would be comparable to the major El Ni\u00f1o of 1997 and 1998.<\/p>\n

\u201cOur forecast system has shown that it can do a remarkably good job of accurately hindcasting past El Ni\u00f1o events when we\u2019ve tested it using historical data, which gives us high confidence in this forecast,\u201d NCAR scientist Stephen Yeager, who helped lead the modeling effort, said in a news release.<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o events, which usually peak in December, are characterized by warmer-than-average temperatures in the Tropical Pacific Ocean.\u00a0They can have a significant impact on weather patterns across North America, causing the northern U.S. and Canada to become warmer and drier than usual while the southern U.S. becomes wetter.<\/p>\n

In Colorado, El Ni\u00f1os generally produce more snow on the southern side of the state as the storm tracks toward the Southwest U.S.<\/p>\n

Sam Collentine, a Colorado-based meteorologist for the OpenSnow forecasting and reporting service, said Colorado is usually around average for snowfall El Ni\u00f1o during winters, with sometimes stronger beginnings and ends of the season.<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1os are usually defined using the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 Index to measure how much warmer the sea surface temperatures are in the Pacific Ocean compared to a long-term average.<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o conditions occur when the average Ni\u00f1o 3.4 Index is above +0.5 degrees Celsius.<\/p>\n

An official El Ni\u00f1o event requires the running three-month average index to be +0.5 degrees Celsius or higher for five consecutive months.<\/p>\n

The Index for August was +1.3 degrees Celsius, and the NCAR’s forecasting system predicts the index will rise to +2.4 degrees during December, January and February. The 1997 to 1998 El Ni\u00f1o peaked at +2.4 degrees.<\/p>\n

The experimental NCAR El Ni\u00f1o forecast was created to more thoroughly explore what phenomena in the Earth system might be predictable from a season to two years in advance.<\/p>\n

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